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caveman2

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  1. caveman2

    Ant Attack Render

    I'm learning blender, and I made this night-time render of Antchester from Sandy White's excellent 1983 game Ant Attack. I'm very happy with how it came out, and thought I'd share it here.
  2. caveman2

    Deal Or No Deal

    You can still gamble sensibly even when the amounts are large. For example, if the banker offered £100, you'd probably want to reject the offer. If the banker offered £124,999 then that's so close to the expected value of the gamble it's surely right for most people to just take it. If the banker offers £50,000 should you take it? How about £20,000? At some point you're getting lowballed by just too much and you have to take a stand and gamble. It's interesting (to me at least) to figure out exactly when you should accept the offer in a principled manner rather than just go by feel. A good model is to for you to take the choice that maximizes the expectation of the log of your net worth. So if you have £X in the bank you want to accept an offer of £Y if log(X + Y) > 0.5(log(X + 0.01) + log(X + 250000)). Using logs captures the idea that, for example, if you have no money than £1M is worth a lot to you, but if you've already got a net worth of £10B, then another million isn't worth that much. Using that model, and in the case where Y=£88,000, you need to already have approximately £110,000 to rationally reject the offer and take the gamble. That's a significant amount of money, but it's not unreasonable to believe that this woman had that much and so made a rational and good choice.
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