Jump to content

rjpageuk

Members
  • Content count

    2,936
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Recent Profile Visitors

1,931 profile views
  1. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    Disappointed with the result but you have to say WBA played well especially Rondon. I think disallowing the goal was the right decision, while the rule says it needs to be deliberate the way the rule is always interpreted is that if you get an advantage from a handball it is a foul and thats what happened. Very different from the Everton game which was a complete travesty as Everton offered literally nothing all game but one falling over the only time they even got in our penalty box.
  2. Football Thread 2017/18

    @Plissken thanks for the response - I badly worded my message I didnt mean that Burnley had an easy opening I meant you cant explain their position through saying they had an easy opening because they didnt. I think your point with the article and xGA was also covered in the statsbomb article I linked to with data for the previous two seasons - their main conclusion was that its still hard to justify with anything other than variance and its an opinion I share. The point is that for any kind of meaningful discussion or analysis post game the xG stats are more important than the actual results. Sure you dont win prize money or medals for xG but you can use it to predict future results better than actual results which is the important thing if you want to have any kind of quality discussion or analysis.
  3. Football Thread 2017/18

    I am not sure the experts really got it wrong for Burnley. It is great for them that relegation is probably off the cards now but lets not be completely results oriented here. Pretty much every statistic backs up the idea Burnley are playing close to relegation level football. They have the worst xG in the entire league at ~ 11 goals (have actually scored 16) and their luck in goals against is only exceeded by Man U - they have an expected xGA of ~ 22 goals which is decent (around mid table) but in contrast to the fact they have somehow actually conceded only 12 goals. Considering Burnley have only won one game this year by a score of more than one goal this has resulted in a lot of extra points. I think anything outside of relegation continues to be a good end of season result for them and there is pretty much zero hope of them even challenging for the European places unless their quality of play significantly improves. One interesting thing to note though is that their placing is nothing to do with having a nice opening run of games - in most point metrics that take into account quality of opposition so far they are also 4th, but I dont think this is going to change the above. EDIT: Statsbomb actually did an article on Burnley on xGA as they have outperformed xGA over the past few seasons: https://statsbomb.com/2017/12/on-burnley-and-expected-goals/
  4. Football Thread 2017/18

    The difference from the quality of the goalkeeping or the skill of the attackers is completely overshadowed by variance though. If De Gea is the explanation for Man U overperforming on xGA why were they only +3 all season last season, or +5 the season before (they are on +10 this season so far)? It is true De Gea is a part of the explanation, but luck is a far bigger factor. You can take any game in isolation and discredit the stats - part of the reason why Arsenal had more chances than Man U is because they are chasing the game and thats true, but over the course of many games these individual explanations cancel out which is true of most of the criticisms of xG. It was an amazing game because it is very rare for any team to have such high xG. For example when Man City thrashed Liverpool earlier in the season 5-0 they only had an xG of just over 3. The value of 4.55 (or 5 depending on the source) is one of the highest I have seen in any game this season including completely one sided thrashings in Europe. No team constantly gets an expected goals of 2 or more but rarely scores more than a goal match. Look at the past 4 seasons in the link I provided before - the worst xG performance by any team in the premier league is a) never that large and b) doesnt tend to associate with the worst teams in the league with the worst strikers. This season so far is it Palace on +11, last season it was Southampton on +9 and the season before Arsenal on +9. I am pretty sure in 2015/2016 Arsenal didnt have the worst strikers in the league. As another example, Tottenham scored +14 more goals than expected last season, but this season so far are -1 with mostly the same attacking players - variance plays the primary role.
  5. Football Thread 2017/18

    Pretty much all match punditry and analysis is completely results oriented. I think statistics are only starting to become known of by the public so hopefully this will change soon. Just as an example, if you watch a game where your team is dominating against another team but can't score the commentators will go on about how great the defending is and how inept the attacking is but then if your team scores a fluke and are still on top in the same way suddenly it is great ball retention attacking play and prowess. It is so basic and shallow. Also notice how defensive mistakes are always much worse if the opposition happen to score from them otherwise they are forgotten about. xG is a better metric for predicting future results than the actual result. It has been clear for example that crystal palace have been underscoring since the start of the season so this should be expected to somewhat correct by the end of the season. It is also clear man u have been conceeding way less than goals they should have. This is partly down to their good GK but also luck. Their xGA is now amazingly worse than Liverpool's despite only conceeding 9 goals compared to Liverpools 19. You should expect that ratio to close by the end of the season if the teams continue to play as they have been. https://understat.com/league/EPL
  6. Starcraft 2 - Official Thread

    I am still playing pretty regularly. The league's were a lot of fun! For those interested there are still regular pro games and the homestory cup is on now https://www.twitch.tv/taketv
  7. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    Generally xG is the best method available for predicting future games, more reliable than actual goals scored (which is open to far more variance). The main reason why I posted it is because I have never seen a number as low as 0.1 for a side (especially a home side)! It also shows that those people saying how we missed so many chances - actually you should only expect to score 2 goals on average with the number of chances generated in the game. It is easy to over-estimate the probability of a chance being scored.
  8. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    xG for tonights game 0.1 vs 2.2
  9. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    It is certainly fun being a Liverpool fan these days - every game is a roller coaster!
  10. Football thread 2015/16 season.

    I thought it was Atletico Madrid that were responsible for most of the cheating and gamesmanship in that game - despite having the ball for 3 times as much time Barcelona still managed to commit more fouls apparently. Every time any Atletico player received the ball (after the first 20 mins when they went 1-0 up) they did everything they could to pretend they were fouled to get out of trouble and waste time or to try to even up the numbers of players on the pitch. There was only one team trying to play football for most of the game. Suarez theatrics aside all the worst fouls were committed by Atletico players including a ridiculous two footed lunge that got away with just a yellow in the second half.
  11. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    I know this thread has just turned into a place for people to vent about Liverpool but come on you are supposed to support the team. The whole ethos of the club is to support players through thick and thin. Henderson clearly gives 100% every time he plays for Liverpool and even plays through the pain barrier these days and your comments are ridiculous. He has been an important member of our squad for a number of years now, and yes his form has dipped recently and for a lot of this season but that hardly warrants the kind of abuse you are giving him.
  12. Starcraft 2 - Official Thread

    I am still on all the time and would be happy to play some 4v4s, or any team games for that matter. I have played almost no lotv and the one or two team games I did play I was terrible as things are so different. Its really disconcerting feeling that the last however many hours playing are thrown out of the window such are the major changes but I guess it will only take a little time to learn new build orders.
  13. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    No idea how we made that so difficult for ourselves - the first Villa goal was a terrible goal to concede but their second was just a great cross and header. Sturridge makes such a difference for us and that ended up winning the game today with two great goals and he could have had one or two more. His link up play with all the other attackers especially Coutinho is so good. Thought Ings did really well too, worked really hard and was unlucky not to get a goal.
  14. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    First Liverpool game I haven't been able to find a stream for in ages - it doesn't sound like I missed much! At least we got through. Angel you are really boring in here. Almost every other post is just you saying the same thing about Rodgers over and over again. We all know your opinion on it by now.
  15. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    So you are saying you have to go back 4 years to find Klopp performing better than Rodgers in a much easier league with a relatively better team. What happened since 2012? Dortmund are doing great this year without him.
×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.